Research and Studies
Feature Articles and Working Papers
Topical researches and analyses on economic matters related to Hong Kong
12 August 2022
Articles on various economic topics, written by economists from the Office of the Government Economist
6 June 2022
- Commodity prices and consumer price inflation in Hong Kong (PDF)
James P Vere
This article explores the relationship between international commodity prices and consumer prices in Hong Kong with quarterly data from 1984 to 2021. Stationarity and cointegration tests show that the World Bank commodity price indices for agriculture, energy and metal and Hong Kong's Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) are nonstationary, but cointegrated, indicating that a vector error correction model is the most appropriate. Reflecting the relatively greater importance of food in the CCPI expenditure basket, the long-run elasticity of consumer prices with respect to agriculture prices is about 0.1.
11 March 2022
- Possible economic losses caused by the local COVID-19 pandemic (PDF)
Desmond Hou and Leo Wong
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic since early 2020 dealt a significant blow to global and local economic activities. This article focuses on seven economic activities (catering, retail, hotels, passenger transport, other spending of visitors, construction, and import/export) that were harder hit, and estimates their economic losses caused by the pandemic. It is crudely estimated that the total economic loss caused by these seven selected economic activities totalled around $320 billion and $246 billion in 2020 and 2021 respectively, equivalent to 10.6% and 8.0% of GDP under the hypothetical no-pandemic scenario.
Major Supportive Works
Analysis and research support to the works of various Government committees / working groups / task forces provided by the Office of the Government Economist