Research and Studies

Feature Articles and Working Papers

Topical researches and analyses on economic matters related to Hong Kong

13 August 2021

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Economic Letters

Articles on various economic topics, written by economists from the Office of the Government Economist

29 July 2021

  • Impact of exchange rate movements of the Hong Kong dollar on consumer price inflation in Hong Kong (PDF)
    Eric Cheung and Victor Leung
    As Hong Kong relies predominantly on imports from outside sources for its supply of foodstuffs and consumer goods, local consumer price inflation is often influenced by external factors such as global economic and inflation conditions, as well as exchange rate movements. As such, there are concerns that the recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar alongside the US dollar against other major currencies may push up import prices, and hence, fuel price pressures in Hong Kong. This note analyses the extent to which Hong Kong's inflation is influenced by exchange rate movements (as measured by the import-weighted Effective Exchange Rate Index (EERI)). It is crudely estimated that a 1% year-on-year decrease in the import-weighted EERI would lead to a cumulative increase of around 0.1 percentage point in underlying inflation over one year.

16 July 2021

  • Hong Kong's long-term unemployment conditions since the recent economic downturn and compared with those in past downturns (PDF)
    Kelvin Wong
    This article surveys Hong Kong's long-term unemployment situation since the beginning of the recent economic downturn and compares the patterns with those in previous economic contractions in the past two decades or so. The long-term unemployment rate of Hong Kong surged from 0.6% in the second quarter of 2019 (the quarter before the recent recession) to a record high of 2.8% in Dec 2020 – Feb 2021. The sharp deterioration of the long-term unemployment situation during the recent economic downturn was even more drastic than those experienced in past economic downturns. This reflects the fact that COVID-19 seriously disrupted a wide range of economic activities, causing many persons to become unemployed within a short period of time and increasing the difficulty of finding a new job. As the local labour market improved more recently amid the gradual recovery of Hong Kong's economy and receding local epidemic, the long-term unemployment situation began to show some signs of improvement. The phenomenon was similar to past experiences that the improvement in the latter generally lagged that in the former by several months.

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Major Supportive Work

Analysis and research support to the works of various Government committees / working groups / task forces provided by the Office of the Government Economist

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