Latest Developments

Gross Domestic Product and its major components (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The Hong Kong economy expanded solidly in the first quarter of 2025, mainly supported by visible increases in exports of goods and services, as well as the resumption of moderate growth in overall investment expenditure. Yet, private consumption expenditure continued to register a modest decline. Real GDP expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, picking up from the 2.5% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP grew visibly by 1.9%. As international trade tensions have eased somewhat of late, the headwinds and uncertainties in the external environment have lessened to some extent. This may relieve part of the downward pressure on the global economic outlook. Moreover, the sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy amid more proactive fiscal policies and the moderately accommodative monetary policies should bode well for the performance of merchandise exports in Asia including Hong Kong. Sustained international trade flows, coupled with improving inbound tourism, are also expected to benefit Hong Kong’s exports of services. However, uncertainties in the trade policies of the United States persist, and its monetary policy trajectory going forward is still complicated. These may affect global financial conditions and investment sentiment. Apart from this, the change in consumption patterns of residents and visitors would still pose constraints on driving consumption in the domestic market, though sustained increase in employment earnings and the SAR Government’s various policies to promote mega events and tourism would help boost consumption sentiment. Taking into account the actual outturn in the first quarter and the latest developments of the global and local situation, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 as a whole is maintained at 2%-3%, the same as that announced in the Budget. The forecast rates of underlying and headline consumer price inflation for 2025 are also maintained at 1.5% and 1.8% respectively.


External sector (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The value of merchandise exports grew sharply by 18.5% in March over a year earlier. Exports to the Mainland grew strongly, while those to other major Asian economies showed mixed performance. Exports to the United States increased visibly, and those to the European Union registered a marginal increase.
Looking ahead, global trade tensions have escalated abruptly due to the significant increases in tariffs by the United States in early April. This will pose challenges to Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance. Nevertheless, the steady growth in the Mainland economy, together with Hong Kong’s proactive efforts in enhancing economic and trade ties with different markets, should help buttress trade performance. The Government has been providing support to enterprises through various measures in coping with the external challenges, and will monitor the situation closely.


Prices (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The underlying consumer price inflation stayed modest in March. The underlying Composite CPI increased by 1.0% over a year earlier in March, smaller than the increase of 1.3% in January and February combined. Price pressures on various major components stayed contained in general.
Looking ahead, overall inflation should remain modest in the near term. External price pressures should be broadly in check, though escalating trade conflicts continue to warrant attention. The Government will monitor the situation closely.


Labour market (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point from a low level in January – March 2025 to 3.4% in February – April 2025. The underemployment rate went up to 1.3%. The labour force and total employment decreased further to 3 806 500 and 3 677 100 respectively from the preceding three-month period.
Looking ahead, various industries in Hong Kong are undergoing a transitional period, and the trends of their unemployment rates may go upward or downward. However, the recent easing of trade tensions, the continued growth in the Mainland economy, the Government’s various measures to boost economic momentum and the continuous positive growth of the overall economy will provide support to the labour market.
Although we see some recent closures of shops, there have also been openings of many new shops. As at end-2024, the number of companies registered in Hong Kong has reached a record high of 1.46 million, likely against emergence of new demands and new consumption trends. The recent successful organisation of a series of mega events in Hong Kong, coupled with the concerted efforts of the Government in tandem with different industries including tourism, catering, hospitality and retail, has led to a significant increase in the number of inbound visitors, which will bring about more opportunities to the labour market.


Retail and other economic indicators (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The value of total retail sales increased further in March 2025 over the preceding month on a seasonally adjusted comparison, and its year-on-year decline continued to narrow. For the first quarter as a whole, the value of total retail sales resumed an increase over the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted comparison.
Looking ahead, the sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy, the Government’s proactive efforts to boost the consumption market through promotion of tourism and mega events, as well as the increase in employment earnings will continue to support the retail sector. However, the increased level of uncertainty in the global economic outlook and the ongoing impact of the change in consumption patterns will pose challenges to the sector.


Other Economic Indicators


Hong Kong population (PDF) (Excel)


Regional headquarters/offices and external investments (PDF) (Excel)


Asset market, exchange rates and interest rates (PDF) (Excel)